Russia Poised for a Shift in Leadership
This month’s presidential election in Russia is predetermined. Vladimir Putin will be nominated and receive an absolute majority of the vote. But this election victory – if that’s what it’s called when opponents and rivals of the incumbent are not admitted to the ballot – could very well be Putin’s last.
Russia is poised for a shift in leadership, but let’s first eliminate a few factors which come to mind when thinking about the end of the Putin era.
Neither his age (Putin will be 72 in 2024) nor presidential term limits will factor into someone new assuming leadership of the country. (After all, if anyone knows how to skirt the law to remain in power, it’s Vladimir Putin.) Putin does not have a clear successor at the ready should he choose to make a formal retirement. Putin is not – as is leaked every year – critically ill, nor will he face a coup d’état.
What might very well drive Vladimir Putin from power six years from now is the same thing that drives change elections in the United States and other nations where voting is a legitimate affair: Large numbers of engaged and enraged citizens.
By the end of his next term, Putin will have been in power longer (24 years) than any other Russian leader – besides Stalin – since the reign of Nicholas I.
Putin’s popularity and resilience have consistently hinged on his ability to be a foreign policy tough guy as well as propel a couple of very crisp national security/heartstring narratives: 1. Russia is engaged in perpetual war with the West; 2. Putin’s military-forward leadership will return Russia to the glorious days of the Soviet Union.
Last November, Lev Gudkov, head of Russia’s Levada Center, neatly described the messy Russian state and the key to Putin’s grip on power as: “A toxic state, a dangerous state that retains its legitimacy through provoking conflicts, through the threat of war, through the threat of confrontation. Thus, mobilizing society within Russia to support the authorities. This is the only resource the regime has today. It seems to me that this is an extremely dangerous development.”
For decades this strategy has worked for Putin to great effect. After all, a wartime president is typically a president that’s here to stay. But as a years-long Russian recession hangs on, incomes fall, and large segments of the population grow increasingly dissatisfied with their quality of life, cracks in Putin’s dam of legitimacy are spreading.
The critical question is whether Putin’s inconsistent action on the domestic issues Russians worry over at their kitchen tables is poised to create long-term challenges for his political agenda – and accelerate his political expiration date. A few factors could make this a reality.
First, the Russian economy is a mess.
Recession, dropping oil prices, expanded US sanctions, regional governments drowning in debt, a banking sector in crisis, and expanded roles in overseas military activities are all placing a massive financial strain on the nation. These financial problems are contributing to rapidly increasing poverty levels.
Second, there’s a clear uptick in activism.
Despite the fact that the Russian people feel as if they have little-to-zero ability to influence what happens in their country – last November, 89 percent of Russians surveyed confirmed this – it’s clear they’re still going to give it a try.
In 2017 more than 1,100 protests were recorded across Russia due largely to economic and financial disillusionment. More than two-thirds of the protests were focused on the subjects of salary decreases and non-payment, unemployment, and/or the loss of savings.
Third, the people do not believe that Putin has their best interests in mind.
While a plurality of voters (33%) was reticent when asked what they do not like about Vladimir Putin, the three most popular reactions among those who did respond were that Putin: 1. Doesn’t care about people or has forgotten about the common man; 2. He gives free rein to his ministers; 3. He doesn’t fight corruption and has surrounded himself with thieves.
More glaring, 76% of respondents believed that Putin is solely responsible for the problems Russia faces under his leadership.
While all of this dissatisfaction has not generated political upheaval – nor will it generate political change this month – these trends just may succeed in forcing Putin to pivot his focus away from global and security issues and toward the ground-level domestic issues typically passed off to other ministers and government officials.
An operator as savvy as Putin should understand the numbers and his people very well. Whether he endeavors to deliver real improvements to the lives of the common Russian men and women may very well determine whether his next six years in power point toward the future of his presidency, or the end.